Galaxy Research Says Bitcoin Bear Market Ended in June, Urges Buy and Hold

Galaxy Research is calling the bottom. In a report published Monday, Alex Thorn, the firm's head of firmwide research, argued that Bitcoin's bear market ended in June and that the asset is now in an accumulation phase.

"Our conclusion is simple: we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin."

Alex Thorn, Galaxy

Bitcoin was above $80,000 on Monday, down 0.2% over 24 hours and roughly 36% below its October 2025 record of around $126,000. It briefly slipped to about $79,700 on Sunday, per CoinGecko, and sits 39% above its June 30 low.

The technical case leans on the 50-week moving average. Bitcoin closed above it for a fifth straight week through Oct. 18, after 44 consecutive weeks below. Since 2011, Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-week line after a stretch of 20 weeks or more four times. In each case, the price never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the next year and eventually regained its prior all-time high.

Cycle timing and depth also fit, according to the report. The three previous cycles bottomed 777 to 912 days after a halving, and Thursday was day 916. This drawdown was 53%, versus 77% to 93% in past cycles.

Onchain data is the more unusual part. Market value never fell below realized value in this bear market, a first, with the ratio bottoming at 1.10 versus lows of 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75 in prior cycles. Short-term holders carry an average cost of $74,811 and sit about 9% in profit, with a spent-output profit ratio of 1.009.

Supply behavior supports the thesis too. Coins dormant five years or more moved at about 34,000 BTC a month in 2026, versus 47,000 in 2025 and 67,000 in 2024. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low, after holdings fell only 11% peak to trough while price fell 53%.

"We believe the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left."

Alex Thorn, Galaxy

The macro leg is a debasement argument. Federal debt stands at $40.44 trillion, with a $1.99 trillion fiscal 2026 deficit, and AI-related borrowing is adding to credit expansion. Thorn wrote that "a bet against stocks and hard assets is a bet on fiat, the one position that makes no sense today." He also said Bitcoin "has proven its ability to run to at least $125k, and we see no reason why it can't retake that level."

The report also tackles tail risks. Recent thefts hit exchanges, vendors, devices or users rather than the protocol, it says, and AI does not weaken SHA-256 or the signature scheme. On quantum, no computer able to break Bitcoin's cryptography exists.

The other side of the trade

Read this with caution. Galaxy and Thorn disclose that they hold Bitcoin, so they are talking their book. The tape is also choppy: spot ETFs swung from a $1 billion three-day inflow streak to two days of heavy outflows this week, leaving October flows in the red. Hotter-than-expected inflation data last week revived bets on another Fed rate hike, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% this month, the highest since 2007.

The price action lines up with our earlier coverage: Glassnode flagged a wall near $87,000, with support stacked between $80K and $81.5K. Spot is trading around the low end of that band, with the 50-week average, currently $76,540, about 4% below.

For traders, that makes the risk defined. Thorn's own invalidation: a weekly close under $76,540 that isn't reclaimed within a month kills the call.