William Blair Cuts EBITDA Estimates for Coinbase and Circle, Stays Bullish on Both

William Blair trimmed its earnings estimates for Coinbase and Circle on September 22 but held its bullish stance on both companies, arguing that a broader crypto market recovery and accelerating USDC adoption position each for sustained profitability gains ahead.

Coinbase stock has climbed 31% in the lead-up to the note, a run Blair characterizes as creating an attractive entry point rather than a reason to step back. The investment bank frames the estimate cuts not as a retreat but as a recalibration.

"Blair says COIN offers an attractive entry after a 31% rise, trims its EBITDA estimate and sees USDC growth driving Circle's next leg."

William Blair analyst team

The dual coverage reflects a broader thesis: that the next cycle rewards infrastructure over speculation. Exchanges and stablecoin issuers collect fees regardless of which tokens win. Blair points specifically to USDC expansion as the engine for Circle's next growth phase, with institutional adoption providing a more durable revenue base than trading volume alone. USDC has carved out meaningful ground against Tether's USDT by leaning into compliance and institutional partnerships, with Coinbase itself holding an equity stake in Circle's issuing consortium.

"Despite reduced estimates, Coinbase and Circle's strategic diversification and USDC growth could stabilize and enhance future profitability."

William Blair analyst team

The countercase deserves equal attention. Estimate cuts, even when dressed in bullish language, signal that near-term margins are compressing. A 31% rally in COIN before the note publishes raises the obvious question of how much recovery is already priced in. Coinbase's trading revenue remains closely tied to crypto market sentiment, which can reverse sharply on regulatory news or macro shocks. On the Circle side, the company is still private, meaning valuation and liquidity transparency lag what public-market investors get with Coinbase. USDC growth also depends on stablecoin regulation resolving favorably, and that remains an open question across the United States, European Union, and several Asian markets.

The structural case for both companies has strengthened materially since the 2022 bear market, when COIN fell roughly 80% from its peak. Coinbase has diversified into custody, staking, and Base, its own Layer-2 network built on Ethereum's OP Stack. Circle has expanded USDC's reach into cross-border payments and institutional settlement, a trend that dovetails with Canada's major banks launching a tokenized deposit system as traditional finance accelerates its on-chain infrastructure build-out. That institutional momentum is exactly the kind of structural tailwind Blair is pointing at.

For investors, the Blair note lands as a measured endorsement rather than a strong buy call. The estimate reductions are real, and the 31% pre-report rally in COIN compresses the margin of safety. But the underlying argument, that exchange and stablecoin infrastructure companies are better positioned in a recovery than most crypto-native assets, is consistent with how the 2024-2025 bull run played out. COIN outperformed most altcoins on a risk-adjusted basis over that period. If the same pattern holds, Blair's thesis has legs, even if the entry point is less clean than it was six months ago.