SpaceX Stock Falls 3% to $143 as Russia and India Unveil Starlink Rivals
SpaceX stock dropped 3.38% to $143, its lowest since October 15, as Russia showed off Rassvet and India's Jio builds a Starlink rival. Rassvet has 31 satellites against Starlink's 11,190. The FCC spectrum vote on October 29 looms larger.
SpaceX (SPCX) dropped 3.38% to $143 on Wednesday, with an intraday low of $142, the lowest since October 15. At a market value near $1.96 trillion, a 3% move equals roughly $63 billion.
The drop lined up with news of two Starlink challengers. Vladimir Putin called Elon Musk a genius on Wednesday while showing off Rassvet, Russia's Starlink rival, at the Russia-Africa summit in Moscow. Digital Development Minister Maksut Shadayev presented the system, which Russian company Bureau 1440 builds. In India, Reliance Jio is building a second rival with about 1,600 satellites.
One caveat on causation: one source attributes the drop to uncertainty around the Middle East situation after the US midterm elections, not to the Russia or India news.
Neither rival is close to Starlink's scale. KeepTrack counts 11,190 Starlink satellites. Rassvet has 31, and its year-end goal of 156 has no third launch scheduled. Putin said Musk has more than 5,000 satellites in orbit and called Rassvet a first step. He added, per local media reports, that Russia keeps close contact with US partners, including Musk, to avoid interference in orbit.
Jio is the more pointed threat on paper. Its design targets up to 5 terabits per second over India, about eight times Starlink's approved 600 gigabits. Starlink holds an Indian licence but still awaits security clearance and airwaves. Musk has blamed Jio owner Mukesh Ambani for the delay.
The revenue at stake is large. Starlink sits in SpaceX's Connectivity segment, which earned $5.25 billion last quarter, about 36% of total revenue of $14.6 billion, according to SpaceX's third-quarter results.
The FCC vote is the bigger near-term catalyst
The FCC votes on October 29 on a proposal to make an extra 482MHz of spectrum available for direct-to-device satellite services. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile oppose it, arguing it could make bands unavailable to 300 million users who depend on them. SpaceX met the FCC on October 23. A failed vote would be bearish for SPCX.
Deutsche Bank stays constructive. It raised its target from $235 to $250 and kept a buy rating.
"Our sense is estimates for the next few quarters may still be too low, SpaceX’s ability to leverage a compute advantage into better inference is underappreciated,"
Deutsche Bank analysts
Fitch also maintained a BBB+ rating after a $40 billion financing deal for Nvidia chips.
Levels to watch
The chart is split. $143 is described as strong support on the daily chart, and a bounce could target $171. A close below it would form a bearish head and shoulders, opening a drop toward the IPO price of $135 and then sub-$130. Momentum leans bearish: the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) line is negative, so sellers have the upper hand, and the ADX is tipping south, which points to a weak trend.
We tracked the earlier slide in SpaceX stock falling below its IPO price. With Rassvet and Jio far behind Starlink in satellite count, Thursday's FCC decision looks more likely to move the price than either rival.
