Fed Governor Waller Backs December Hike as Bitcoin Slips Toward $74K
Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed a 25 bps December hike in London and said 50 bps could be warranted if October core CPI hits 0.3% or more. Bitcoin slipped about 1% toward $74,000 as stock futures fell.
Bitcoin slid about 1% toward $74,000 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supports a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. Waller made the remarks in a speech in London on Nov. 10, 2026, according to the text posted on federalreserve.gov.
His position holds even if October CPI shows improvement. He also left the door open to something bigger: a 50 bps move could be warranted if inflation runs hot. The trigger is an October core CPI reading of 0.3% or higher month over month, similar to the last two monthly prints.
"However, if inflation comes in substantially higher than I expect, more robust action by the FOMC may be called for,"
Chris Waller, Fed Governor
On what a hot print would mean for the Fed if it stuck to 25 bps, he was blunter:
"Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take,"
Chris Waller, Fed Governor
Price action
Bitcoin and gold both fell just over 1%, with BTC near $74,000 and gold below $4,100 an ounce. BTC spent the session boxed between the mid-$74,000s and the low-$75,000s, tracking US stock futures lower. Nasdaq 100 futures edged down, the dollar index held firm below 102, and oil retreated on easing Iran tensions.
For context, Bitcoin settled near $81,000 when the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote on Oct. 28. That puts the current level roughly $7,000 lower.
What is priced
A 25 bps hike is largely in the numbers. Markets price 25 bps of tightening for Dec. 9, which would lift the target range to 4.00% to 4.25%. The odds depend on where you look: Polymarket has a December hike at almost 90%, while market pricing cited elsewhere sits around 97%. Different measures, different answers.
The tail is the 50 bps case, and it is not fully priced. A core CPI print below 0.3% would leave 25 bps as the base case. The October CPI report was due Tuesday, Nov. 10, the same day as the speech.
Waller's reasoning
Waller described the labor market as stable while inflation runs well above the Fed's 2% goal. He backed October's hold because he saw no need to hike at two consecutive meetings, after the September increase. His case rests on his own inflation read, so treat it as one governor's view rather than a committee signal.
He also expects energy prices to stay elevated. Tankers moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz pay higher insurance and take protective measures against Iranian attacks, leaving oil up to $30 per barrel higher, he said. Diesel output is constrained by limited refinery capacity.
What it means for traders
The setup is asymmetric. With 25 bps the consensus, a benign CPI print may not give risk assets much relief, while a hot core number revives a 50 bps scenario the market has not fully priced. The FOMC meets Dec. 8-9, leaving weeks of data between now and then.
