Bitcoin Holds $78K, XRP Sits Near $1.25 Ahead of US Midterms
Bitcoin trades around $78,462 and XRP near $1.25 a day before US midterms. BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw outflows, XRP ETF inflows thinned, and history points to post-midterm weakness. Key levels: $76,270 on BTC and $1.20 on XRP.
Midterm eve, and crypto isn't pricing in a party. Bitcoin traded around $78,462 and XRP near $1.25 on November 2, a day before US midterm elections. Bitcoin and Ether spot ETFs are bleeding, and traders are weighing a history of post-midterm weakness.
XRP is the weaker chart. It closed October down nearly 16%, and its daily RSI sits around 44. That reads as consolidation, not capitulation.
Immediate support is $1.2323, the lower Bollinger Band. Resistance is $1.2999, the 20-day moving average. On a wider view, $1.20 is the key downside level, $1.30 is the recovery line and $1.40 is the next target above that.
ETF flows tell a mixed story
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $203 million in net outflows from Oct. 26 to Oct. 30, led by Fidelity's FBTC at $166 million, according to Wu Blockchain's weekly flow post. Ethereum spot ETFs shed $432 million, their fifth straight week of net outflows.
XRP products look steadier but thin. US spot XRP ETFs took in $18.83 million in October per SoSoValue, their seventh straight positive month. It was also the second-lowest monthly inflow on record, above only January's $15.59 million. Cumulative net inflows stand at $1.81 billion.
Price fell anyway. Inflows alone did not hold the line.
The midterm angle
The election is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Forecasting models give Democrats about a 95% chance of winning the House, and the Senate race is closer.
Ali Charts argued in a post on X that four midterm elections were followed by major corrections and that BTC could face another. Four data points make a pattern, not a law, and past moves do not guarantee another leg down.
XRP's own seasonality doesn't help either. EGRAG Crypto found that seven of the 13 Novembers from 2013 to 2025 ended negative, with a median decline of 9.1%. The reported average November return is 78.3%, and that gap from the median tells you a few monster years carry the average. The median is the number to trade off. EGRAG also called October's drop XRP's fourth-worst October since 2013.
Levels and positioning
Bitcoin has held above its 50-week moving average for seven straight weeks. That is a somewhat encouraging show of resilience after the Binance security incident. The largest daily outflow, about $643 million, came after that breach. Ripple's wallets were active in the aftermath too: our earlier coverage tracked Ripple moving 310M XRP after it helped with the exploit response.
On the BTC chart, the MACD line sits near -1,131.95, under its signal line at -742.66. Support is $76,270. Resistance runs from $80,000 to $82,000, then about $86,976.
Derivatives volume jumped 47.57% to $36.56 billion, while open interest barely moved, up 0.14% to $53.15 billion. That is churn, not new leverage. The Fear and Greed Index reads 36.
XRP whales are a yellow flag. Large XRP deposits to Binance hit a seven-month high in October, per CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Wallets holding 10M to 100M XRP fell from 351 to 339. Deposits do not prove selling, though.
What would change the picture
To flip the bearish read, bulls need a sustained BTC break above $82,000, XRP above $1.30, stronger ETF inflows and better sentiment. Analyst Carolina points to historically weak monthly RSI readings and long-term targets from $1.50 to $14.00. She concedes higher prices would need fresh capital and volume. Treat those targets as speculative: an oversold RSI does not prove a bottom.
The setup into election night is cautious, with flat leverage, thin XRP inflows and no fresh bid. Lose $76,270 on BTC or $1.20 on XRP and the bearish case gets real.
