Bitcoin Bear Market Over, Says CryptoQuant CEO as Profitability Metric Mirrors 2023

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared on August 28 that Bitcoin's bear market is over, pointing to a profitability metric that is producing the same reversal signal it generated at the start of the 2023 recovery cycle.

The declaration centers on Bitcoin's on-chain profitability data, which tracks the proportion of circulating supply currently held at a gain relative to its acquisition cost. According to Ki, that metric has now crossed a threshold that historically marked the transition from bear-market capitulation to early-stage recovery. The last time the signal appeared in this configuration was early 2023, when Bitcoin was climbing out of the wreckage left by the FTX collapse and beginning a multi-month accumulation phase that eventually preceded a sustained price rally.

"Bitcoin profitability data produced a bear-market reversal signal that was also present at the start of 2023."

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant

The comparison carries weight precisely because the 2023 signal was not obvious in real time. Sentiment was deeply negative, institutional participation had pulled back sharply, and most retail participants had exited. The recovery that followed was gradual, driven first by on-chain accumulation before price action confirmed it. Ki's framing suggests the current setup in August 2026 mirrors that accumulation-before-confirmation structure, with profitability data turning constructive ahead of any obvious price catalyst.

The bear market Ki is calling an end to is the cycle that followed Bitcoin's 2024-2025 downturn, a distinct episode from the 2021-2022 collapse. Each cycle has carried its own macro backdrop, regulatory pressures, and liquidity conditions. A single metric alignment does not erase the structural differences between periods. The 2023 recovery unfolded in a specific interest-rate environment and before the spot Bitcoin ETF approvals that reshaped institutional access to the asset class in 2024. Conditions in mid-2026 are not identical, and on-chain signals have produced false dawns before.

Ki acknowledged the potential market implications directly, noting that the end of a bear market could boost investor confidence and draw renewed institutional capital into Bitcoin. That sequencing matters. Institutional re-entry tends to follow, not lead, confirmed trend changes, meaning the profitability signal may be identifying a window that still requires price confirmation before larger allocations materialize. On-chain metrics also carry an inherent lag: they often reflect what has already happened to supply distribution rather than predicting what comes next.

CryptoQuant's data infrastructure commands respect in the on-chain analysis space. The firm tracks wallet-level cost-basis data across the Bitcoin network, and its profitability indicators have historically been among the more reliable tools for identifying macro cycle shifts. The fact that the current reading is not just elevated but specifically matches the 2023 pattern, rather than simply crossing an arbitrary threshold, gives the signal more texture than a generic bullish call.

What this does not provide is a price target or a timeline. The 2023 recovery took months to translate into the broad market rally that followed. Traders treating Ki's declaration as a short-term entry signal are reading more into it than the underlying data supports. As a macro cycle indicator, the signal is meaningful. As a catalyst for immediate price movement, it is far less certain.

The broader question is whether the 2026 market structure has enough in common with 2023 to make the comparison actionable. Spot ETF flows, miner economics, and derivatives open interest all feed into Bitcoin's price dynamics in ways that were either absent or far smaller three years ago. If institutional demand responds to a confirmed cycle bottom the way it did in 2023 and 2024, the upside case is credible. If macro headwinds or regulatory friction absorb that demand, the profitability signal becomes a footnote rather than a turning point.

Ki Young Ju has put a clear stake in the ground. The on-chain data is his evidence. The market will decide whether the 2023 playbook still applies.