Forecasting the future of any cryptocurrency can be like trying to predict the weather: many variables are at play, some predictable, others less so.

Over the years, many price predictions have been made regarding XRP. Crypto hedge fund manager, Thomas Kralow, previously predicted that XRP would hit $US30 a coin in 2023. This prediction fails to consider the mathematical improbability of XRP reaching this price, as the total supply of 100 billion coins means the project’s market cap would be $US3 trillion dollars. That is more than double the current market cap of all cryptocurrencies combined.

To avoid the sensationalist views often provided by XRP fanatics, Drozdz provides a balanced insight into two scenarios: a bullish outlook, driven by increased popularity and positive legal outcomes, and a bearish view, potentially impacted by declining interest, token design and broader market sell-offs.

The Bull Case

“Cryptocurrencies, in general, are driven largely by news, popularity, and in the case of XRP, court decisions,” says Drozdz. These currencies lack intrinsic value, like physical assets or cash flows. Therefore, their value largely depends on the sentiment of investors.

The recent winning streak against the SEC has already created a ripple effect, pardon the pun, on its price. However, the trend back to the baseline price before the ruling indicates that the market thinks the project might not be out of the woods just yet.

Further favourable rulings and developments related to the ongoing litigation could boost XRP’s price, but whether the price will stay high or fall afterwards is yet to be seen.

Beyond the legal realm, the general state of the cryptocurrency market can significantly impact XRP. Drozdz notes: “A large-scale upswing in the crypto world could be a boon for XRP. If other cryptocurrencies rise, XRP could well ride the wave.”

The Bear Case

However, not all potential scenarios are rosy. The resolution of the ongoing litigation could, paradoxically, lead to a decline in XRP’s price.

“Once the excitement around the lawsuit fades, we could see a drop in interest for XRP. That could, in the medium term, negatively impact its price,” Drozdz explains.

While the price currently remains above the level the token was at prior to the ruling, if XRP continues on the trend, it won’t be long before it drops to a new low.

The broader market also presents possible challenges. If a significant sell-off in the cryptocurrency market occurs, this could also depress the value of XRP. “Just as XRP can benefit from a bull market, it’s susceptible to bearish trends in the wider cryptocurrency space,” Drozdz says.

There are also concerns about using XRP in Ripple’s cross-border payment system. The currency is largely redundant and potentially isn’t necessary for the payments system to function. Even if XRP is used to settle payments, the value of XRP does not affect the system’s functionality, as the payments are settled in fiat value. This means that the payment can still be sent as usual whether XRP is $1 or 1 cent, providing little incentive for positive price action.

For this reason, it is easier to perceive long-term value accrual with a significant improvement to the token’s design and utility in the system.