SUMMARY
- Trump has expanded his lead over Harris on Polymarket after receiving Musk’s endorsement.
- Despite this, he lags behind in Nevada, a crucial state for predicting election outcomes.
Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris by 2.5 percentage points in Polymarket’s election contract, taking after an support by Elon Musk during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The rally, held at the location of the first assassination attempt on Trump in July, highlighted Musk’s solid support for Trump and prediction markets. Musk announced that the other side is attempting to take away freedoms, including free speech and the right to bear arms. He moreover promoted prediction markets as more precise than traditional polls, recommending their value in forecasting election outcomes.
Despite Trump’s lead on the national Polymarket election contract, he faces challenges in swing states, notably Nevada. Polymarket gives him only a 19% chance of winning every swing state, with Harris having the same probability. Nevada is especially critical, as it has predicted the election result in eight of the last nine presidential contests, concurring to information from USAFacts. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows that Democrats have gained strength in Nevada over the past month, further complicating Trump’s path to triumph in this historically pivotal state.
Nevada was also one of the states where Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had polled highest before his exit from the race. A recent Wall Street Journal report highlighted that a few of Kennedy’s supporters are presently backing Trump, although numerous stay reluctant and are indeed considering abstaining from voting altogether due to disappointment with the remaining major party candidates. While Kennedy’s departure has made some progress toward Trump, it hasn’t been sufficient to modify the flow in Nevada.
In contrast, Ohio, another verifiably predictive state, remains solidly in the Republican camp. Polymarket data recommends Republicans have a 90% chance of winning in Ohio, providing Trump with a potential stronghold. With key states like Nevada and Ohio being closely observed, this race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive and challenged races in history, with swing states holding the key to the final result.