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Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
While many experts and investors view the current crypto bear market as a negative, economist Tyler Cowen, professor at George Mason University, believes that a crash is positive because it helps clean up the system. The dotcom bubble, though painful, wiped out the bad companies, paving the way for today’s leaders like Amazon and Google.
Previously, the naysayers pointed to the sharp volatility in cryptocurrencies as a deterrent for mass adoption. However, since September, Bitcoin has traded in a tighter range than the Argentine peso, the Turkish lira, the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso, and the South African rand. In fact, its range was only 2.7 percent greater than that of the safe haven currency, the Swiss franc.
Both on the way up and on its way down, Bitcoin has been the leader, whose price action is followed by the altcoins. However, some analysts believe that this might change in the future and the next bull market might be led by one of the top altcoins. Let’s see what the charts forecast.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin has failed to attract buyers at higher levels. It turned down from $6,600 levels and easily broke below both the moving averages. This is a sign of weakness. The next stop is a fall to $6,250–$6,200.
A break below $6,200 will threaten the critical support zone at $6,075.04–$5,900, which has not been breached in 2018. Any break of this support can result in a sharp liquidation of long positions, dragging the BTC/USD pair to $5,450 and $5,000 within a short span of time. Therefore, traders can keep the stops at $5,900.
If the bulls support $6,200 levels, the leading digital currency can extend its stay in the range for a few more days.
ETH/USD
Absence of follow up buying has pushed Ethereum to the 20-day EMA. If this support breaks, it can slide to the lower support of $200 and $188.35. The downtrend will resume if the bears sink prices below the Sept. 12 lows of $167.32.
If the bulls defend the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USD pair might attempt to rise above $225.12 once again. We will turn positive on a breakout and close above $249.93. The flat moving averages and the RSI close to 50 suggests that consolidation might continue for a few more days.
Price action inside the range is usually volatile and can hit stops quickly. Therefore, positional traders can wait for a breakout and close above $249.93 before initiating any long positions. On the other hand, aggressive traders can buy close to the bottom of the range, near $188.35, after the digital currency shows signs of moving up.
XRP/USD
Ripple is not finding buying support at higher levels. After breaking out of the tight range, it has corrected back to the moving averages that are sloping up. We anticipate the bulls to offer strong support at current levels.
If the XRP/USD pair bounces off the moving averages or from the breakout levels of the tight range, it will attempt to breakout of $0.565 once again. If successful, the digital currency can reach $0.625 and $0.7644.
On the other hand, if the bears sink prices below the moving averages and the tight range, a fall to $0.37185 is probable. For now, traders can retain the stops at $0.425, a level below which our bullish assumption fails.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash has turned down from the critical overhead resistance of $660.0753. We were expecting this, hence, we recommended booking partial profits in our previous analysis.
The current pullback can extend to the moving averages, which have completed a bullish crossover; hence, we anticipate a strong support at the 20-day EMA. The RSI has also corrected its overbought levels, therefore, the BCH/USD pair might try to breakout of $660.0753 once again. If the attempt fails, traders can close their positions.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears continue to pound the digital currency, sinking it below the moving averages and $400.
EOS/USD
EOS has turned down from close to the top of the tight range. It is currently back at the midpoint. If the bears push prices below the 20-day EMA, a fall to the bottom of the range is probable. Traders can keep the stops on their long positions at $4.90.
A breakdown of $5 can sink the EOS/USD pair to $4.49 and below that to the critical support at $3.8723. However, we expect the bulls to offer strong support at $5.
The virtual currency will show signs of strength if it breaks out of $6. A reversal will be signaled when the bulls sustain the price above $6.8299. Following a breakout, the target levels to watch on the upside are $9.1668 and $11.4.
XLM/USD
Stellar continues to trade above the moving averages and the downtrend line of the descending triangle. As the virtual currency is consolidating after breaking out of the downtrend line, we shall retain our buy suggested in the previous analysis.
If our buy gets filled, the target objective if $0.36, with a minor resistance at $0.304. Though we expect this level to be scaled, in trading, we should be ready for any eventuality. Therefore, if the bears defend $0.304, traders can either close their position or raise their stops to breakeven. The initial stop loss can be kept at $0.2, which can be quickly trailed higher after the position gets filled.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the XLM/USD pair breaks below both the moving averages and re-enters the downtrend line of the triangle. The downtrend will resume on a breakdown of $0.184.
LTC/USD
Litecoin turned down from the downtrend line. It has broken below both moving averages and is likely to retest the support zone between $49.466–$47.246. Traders, who are left with partial positions can maintain their stops at $50.
The LTC/USD pair remains bearish as long as it trades inside the descending triangle pattern. The downtrend will resume if the bears break below $47.246.
The pattern will be invalidated if the bulls breakout of the downtrend line of the triangle. Such a move can push prices to the top of the range at $69.279. We expect a trend change if the virtual currency breaks out and closes (UTC time frame) above $69.279.
ADA/USD
Cardano is largely trading inside the tight range of $0.082207–$0.068989 since Oct. 12. After finding support at $0.068989 on Oct. 31, the price rallied to the top of the tight range at $0.082207 on Nov. 6.
However, both these levels held out strongly. While the bulls defended the bottom of the range, the bears defended the top of the range.
With both moving averages flat and the RSI at the midpoint, the ADA/USD pair is not giving any clear insight about the next move. We anticipate a new uptrend if the bulls push prices above $0.094256. Until then, we suggest trades remain on the sidelines. If the virtual currency breaks down of $0.060105, it will resume the downtrend.
XMR/USD
After failing to breakout of the $112.44 level for four days, Monero has turned down and broken below both moving averages.
Unless the bulls scale the moving averages quickly, a decline to the bottom of the tight range at $100.453 is probable.
The flat moving averages and the RSI close to 50 suggests that the range bound action is likely to continue. The XMR/USD pair is not showing any reliable buy setups; hence, we are not recommending any trade.
TRX/USD
TRON has been trading inside the $0.02815521–$0.0183 range since Aug. 8. Between Aug. 8 and Oct. 15, the price rose to the top of the range thrice and fell to the bottom of the range on two occasions.
However, since then, the TRX/USD pair has largely been gravitating close to the midpoint of the range. Any deviation from the center gets pulled back quickly.
A new trend will form either on a breakout or a breakdown from the range. A rally and close (UTC time frame) above $0.02815521 can result in a move to $0.04158193. Below $0.0183, the downtrend will resume.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. Charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.
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