SUMMARY

• Amberdata’s Greg Magadini estimates that the close U.S. presidential race could swing Bitcoin prices by $6,000 to $8,000.
• DEX traders expect an even larger price shift in ether, with the market gearing up for increased bullish volatility.

With the U.S. presidential election approaching, crypto traders brace for increased volatility in Bitcoin (BTC). Amberdata’s Greg Magadini estimates a price development between $6,000 and $8,000 post-election, reflecting early August’s strong fluctuations. This expectation is based on Deribit options information, which recommends a $4,000 move in either direction from Bitcoin’s current rate. Magadini expects a “1.5-sigma” response due to a close race between Republican Donald Trump, seen as crypto-friendly, and Democrat Kamala Harris across key swing states. Tight chances reduce the probability of a sensational 3-sigma move, common in extreme markets.

While volatility can swing both ways, indicators recommend an upward trend. Options dealers appear optimistic, with call options trading higher than puts, which is a bullish flag. Calls for BTC at $70,000, $85,000, and $90,000 on both Deribit and CME have become more well known. Joshua Lim of Arbelos Markets points out that calls are repricing higher in spite of a slight plunge in Bitcoin’s spot price following frail poll results for Trump. Lim moreover notes that the volatility curve signals a 7%-8% move encompassing basic occasions like Thursday’s Federal Reserve decision and Friday’s anticipated election results.

Traders expect Ether (ETH) to be more volatile than Bitcoin on decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Larger price movements have been verified in response to ETH, and this pattern is probably going to continue throughout the race. According to the Derive platform, there is a 68% possibility that ETH would move between 9.35% and 10.19%, which would indicate a possible increase of $247 from the current price of $2,470. This is comparable to a possible Bitcoin swing of $6,800. Bullish optimism is also evident among DEX traders, as call options exceed puts by 1,179 to 885 contracts.

With election day close, the crypto market is gearing up for striking price activity. Nick Forster, founder of Derive, stresses that these figures are imperative for traders utilizing advanced techniques to manage or capitalize on the expected volatility. Forster highlights the election as a significant moment for onchain options trading, displaying how traders utilize these vital approaches to handle the uncertain cryptocurrency market.