The bull case presents an optimistic outlook, looking into situations in which BNB’s price could increase. Conversely, the bear case takes a more conservative approach, outlining the reasons why BNB’s price might experience a decline. By considering these two contrasting viewpoints, we can gain a well-rounded understanding of the altcoin’s possible trajectories.

Bull Case

A bullish outlook for BNB would be driven by several key factors, including, according to Quartly-Janeiro, one involving “widespread buying by investors either holding it for the first time or using it as a safe haven to exit other altcoins”. This increased demand could significantly boost BNB’s price and market capitalisation.

Moreover, if Binance were to achieve a higher market share, reenter markets it previously left, or establish itself as a leading player in new markets, these developments would be considered positive fundamentals for BNB.

“You might hear discussing or approving BNB ETF products or the firm announcing partnerships with organisations like Visa or Mastercard,” Quartly-Janeiro says.

Growth of the BNB chain ecosystem could also further drive demand for BNB, as it is essential for users to transact on any chains that use BNB as the native currency. Much like Ethereum and its native token ETH, BNB chain users inevitably buy some BNB to hold in their wallet for transaction fees, effectively reducing the number of tokens available on the open market. This creates a boost on the demand side while simultaneously decreasing coins for sale on the supply side.

Macroeconomic factors could also drive demand for BNB.

Quartly-Janeiro notes that “a drop in inflation leading to higher disposable income or economic contagion leading to flight from fiat currencies”could increase interest in cryptocurrencies like BNB.

Additionally, greater integration of BNB with purchases of real-world goods and services, bolstered by the trust placed in Binance, could further contribute to the coin’s growth.

Bear Case

While the bull case seems solid, several events could lead to BNB’s downside and potentially cause a a heavy sell-off.

Quartly-Janeiro cites the macroeconomic environment, which has been a critical driver of crypto markets in the past, as a significant concern. Recent data from the US shows that inflation remains stubborn, and despite the pause in rate hikes, it doesn’t appear that the world is out of the woods just yet.

“(Investors) may need to liquidate digital assets to finance day-to-day spending in a tough inflationary environment,” says Quartly-Janeiro.

Perhaps the most significant risk to BNB’s future would be any challenges to the survival of Binance itself. While BNB’s direct relationship with the exchange as its native token has its benefits, it also leaves BNB vulnerable to collapse if anything happens to the exchange. As was the case in late 2023, negative news for Binance is also interpreted as negative news for BNB. However, while Quartly-Janeiro notes that “challenges to the survival of Binance” could negatively impact BNB, he says this “seems unlikely given its reserves and international following”.

BNB’s future will be shaped by a complex interplay of factors, including investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and the overall health of the Binance ecosystem. While there are potential risks and challenges ahead, Binance’s strong position and the exchange’s proven resilience suggest that the coin has the potential to weather any storms.