Market pundit John Osterman predicts Bitcoin price could surpass $400K in the wake of the 2024 halving, citing historical trends of significant price increases after previous halvings.

John Osterman, a notable Bitcoin enthusiast, recently posted an image on X predicting Bitcoin could surge above $400,000 this cycle. Osterman’s snapshot indicates that past halving events have significantly boosted Bitcoin’s price, suggesting a similar outcome for 2024.

#Bitcoin could hit above $400k this cycle. pic.twitter.com/SW7CyL11z6

— John Osterman (@JohnXOsterman) July 19, 2024

Historical Trends on Bitcoin Halvings

An analysis of Bitcoin’s price movements reveals notable patterns post-halving. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin’s price rose from around $400 to approximately $1,100. The 2016 halving saw the price increase from around $8,000 to $15,000. In 2020, the price crossed the $60,000 mark.

During this current cycle, Osterman’s chart projects a potential increase where Bitcoin could exceed $400,000 following the 2024 halving.

The prediction has sparked diverse reactions within the crypto community. Some commenters agreed with Osterman’s projection, citing growing global adoption of Bitcoin and the trend demonstrated in his data as supporting evidence.

One individual mentioned that many influential figures are discussing Bitcoin, and, with increasing global adoption, they foresee $400K and above as achievable.

Expert Analysis

Richard Teng, CEO of Binance, has also gone to X to comment on the cyclical nature of markets, emphasizing the importance of a long-term investment perspective. He noted that it is important to take a long-term horizon when making investment decisions. Historical data supports Teng’s statement, showcasing significant price increases post-halving. 

For instance, six and twelve months after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin’s price rose by 923% and 7,043%, respectively. Similar trends were observed after the 2016 and 2020 halvings. With only three months since the recent 2024 halving, Teng’s advice suggests potential substantial price increases yet to manifest.

Key Points Ahead of 2024 Halving

It is important to recall that the market analyst Ali Martinez in January highlighted crucial points ahead of the April 2024 halving. Martinez noted that Bitcoin often experiences corrections within a month post-halving, with a 30% drop in 2016 and a 7% drop in 2020. 

However, these dips are usually followed by significant rallies, with prices spiking 11,000%, 2,850%, and 700% after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, respectively. Martinez also observed that each halving event typically introduces a bull market, lasting between 365 to 549 days.